Friday, February 22, 2013

85th Academy Awards Predictions

So, it's that time of year again. Time for my annual Oscar predictions. What I'm going to do is tell you the nominees then tell you who I think deserves to win, then who I think will win. Don't be surprised if I mention some people who weren't nominated (coughBenAffleckcough.) Well, without further ado, here are my educated guesses for this Sunday.

Best Picture

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty


What deserves to win: While I personally would love to see Django Unchained take home this award, I don't think that it is the overall best film here. It isn't something that can be loved universally by all, so I don't think it quite deserves the award. That being said, I think Argo is definitely the best film in the bunch. This movie just nailed it in every regard: phenomenal script, perfect ensemble, and superb direction. The only movies on this list that come close to that same level of excellence are Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook. Which brings me to my next point...

What will win: I thought that Lincoln was a sure lock to win best picture when I saw it in November, then I saw Argo (albeit a little late) and thought it was the best contender to take down the behemoth that is Lincoln. I never expect David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook to come into the mix like this. Yes, I thought the movie was great, and would say it was more enjoyable than Lincoln, but I didn't expect the Academy to have such a hard-on for this movie. The fact that De Niro, Weaver and Russell all scored noms makes me think that this film has a definite chance of winning big at the Oscars. But I still don't know if it can edge out Spielberg's Lincoln. So I'm gonna stick with my choice from three months ago and say that Lincoln will win.

Best Director

Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Michael Haneke, Amour
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln


What deserves to win: I'm sure you all know what I'm going to say here, so let me make this brief. Ben Affleck clearly deserves this award. Fuck the academy for snubbing him. And even worse, then snubbed Bigelow, who I thought had the best chance of stealing the award from him. The best director this year was definitely Ben Affleck, and if you disagree with me, then we will have words. And by words, I mean I'm gonna beat your face in.

What will win: Sadly, I think the statue will be going to Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. Don't get me wrong, the direction in this movie is great, but I don't think it is Spielberg's best effort, and it doesn't hold a torch to either Affleck or Bigelow. I also wouldn't be surprised if Russell comes in and steals this one since no one knows who to vote for. A lot of votes could get wasted on Lee, Zeitlin or Haneke and pave the way for Russell to upset. But that's not how I see it going, I say Spielberg takes home his third Best Director Oscar.

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master


What deserves to win: If you had asked me two weeks ago, I would have said Day-Lewis deserves it and will win it. Then I saw The Master. Holy ass-fuck was Joaquin Phoenix good! I always thought that Pheonix's best performance would forever be the creepy father-murdering, sister-fucking dude in Gladiator. I guess I was wrong. This is definitely his greatest performance, and I doubt that he will ever top it. Too bad it had to come this year...

What will win: ...because Daniel Day-Lewis is totally going to win. There is no doubt in my mind that he won this award. It's a combination of the film that he was in (which was clear Oscar bait) and the fact that he isn't an arrogant asshole who goes around talking about how award shows suck. If Pheonix were less anti-Oscars, he would probably be in the running to win this thing, but because he is a prick about it Day-Lewis is  taking it home.

Best Actress

Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild


What deserves to win: This is really hard because, like everyone else, I think that Chastain and Lawrence both deserve it. Can they split the award? Wasn't there legit a tie once? Like...Katharine Hepburn and someone else. I'll have to look it up and edit this later, but I think that happened. Can we make that happen again? I really loved both of their performances, but for completely different reasons. If I had to say one deserved it more, it would probably be Chastain, just because she carried the entire movie on her back. I'm not saying everyone else was bad in the movie, but she really was the shining star in there.

What will win: I have to say that Lawrence will edge out Chastain here. I really think that the boner that the Academy has for Silver Linings Playbook will help her out and get her the win (deservedly so.)

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln


What deserves to win: You know who deserves to win? Leonardo DiCaprio. Yes, Christoph Waltz was great. And yes, he deserved a nomination. But DiCaprio deserved it more and was better. Why doesn't the Academy stop fanticizing about how much they wanna bone SLP and give the nom to the person that deserves the win. Jesus, I think I'm starting to see a recurring theme here...

What will win: How many times am I going to say this? Lincoln will take it, but SLP could upset. Just like Best Picture and Best Director, I think that Tommy Lee Jones is going to win, but seeing as how SLP was nominated in everything for no good reason, it could upset. This is one of the few categories this year that is really a coin toss, though. I think any of these five could pull off an "upset," even though I don't think it's an upset when there is no front-runner. But, whatever. Jones wins, that's my "educated guess."

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master


What deserves to win: I'm glad I can finally talk about a category that will go exactly as it should. Anne Hathaway will definitely win her first Oscar this Sunday. I have no doubt in my mind. I really thought she had a chance to win back in 2009 for Rachel Getting Married, but, as Ricky Gervais said, Holocaust movies always get the awards. Now she has done her own depressing movie, and will get an award for that. Suck on that, Kate Winslet.

Best Original Screenplay

Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty


What deserves to win: Django Unchained. There are no words to express my infatuation with that script. I think this is one of Tarantino's best scripts, and is only inferior to his last script for Inglourious Basterds. Which...lost...to...Mark Boal. Oh fuck.

What will win: Once again, Tarantino is going to lose out to Mark Boal. This is horseshit. Alright, so he lost once, maybe that was a fluke. BUT AGAIN?! You've gotta be fucking kidding me. Yes, Zero Dark Thirty was well written and made a complicated plot seem really easy to follow. But for fuck's sake, give Tarantino something. Or even Wes Anderson. Moonrise Kingdom deserves it more than ZDT. Ugh.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook


What deserves to win: Argo. I'm tired of talking about how phenomenal this script/movie is. So just hear me when I say: it deserves to win.

What will win: Probably Lincoln or SLP. But this is one of the few categories that is genuinely hard to predict. I actually think Argo has a great chance to win, but will probably be beat out by Lincoln.

Best Original Score

Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall


What deserves to win: This is one of my favorite categories every year, because I get to listen to a bunch of awesome scores and decide which one I love the best. While I am seriously disappointed that Howard Shore didn't get a nod for The Hobbit and Hans Zimmer was ignored (again) for his beautiful Dark Knight Rises score, I did love all of the nominated scores (except for maybe Life of Pi, which was just alright...) So after listening to all of these scores a few dozen times each, I have come to the conclusion that...

What will win: ...these scores are phenomenal and it's impossible to predict. I think Anna Karenina was my personal favorite, but I doubt that it will win (sorry Dario Marianelli.) I actually think this one comes down to Argo and Lincoln (even though I think Skyfall is better.) Even though John Williams has a slew of nominations (and a couple of wins) I don't think this is his year. Alexandre Desplat really nailed it with his score for Argo by capturing the differences better Iran and US (you can really tell where each track comes from when listening to the score.) Bravo, Mr. Desplat. Fun fact: he also scored two other best picture nominees this year, Moonrise Kingdom and Zero Dark Thirty. 

Best Cinematography

Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall


What deserves to win: HOW HAS ROGER DEAKINS NEVER WON AN OSCAR?! Someone needs to fix this ASAP. If he doesn't win, I'm probably gonna start Hulking it and just murder all of the younglings. Oh, dude, I finally get what happened in Episode III.

What will win: Even though Deakins totally deserves the win for Skyfall (and Fargo for that matter,) he is probably going to be beat out by Claudio Miranda for Life of Pi (which is horseshit.) Yes, Life of Pi had great visuals, but they don't hold a candle to Skyfall. I think what Miranda did was great, but much easier than what Deakins had to do. And he did it better. Fuck this, I give up. Life isn't worth living if Deakins doesn't have an Oscar.

Best Makeup

Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables


What deserves to win: One word: dwarves. Fuck you, I'm done.

What will win: Les Miserables. Because the Academy sucks and doesn't know shit. Grrrrrrrrrrr.

Best Costume Design

Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman


What deserves to win: Anna Karenina. The costumes in this film are absolutely dazzling. Every scene offers a new and mesmerizing costume to admire. I freaking loved this movie, and the costumes were a big reason why.

What will win: From what I hear, Mirror Mirror has a great chance to steal this one. I didn't see the movie, but I heard it had unreal dresses that really floored a lot of people. But since I didn't see the movie, I'm gonna guy that Lincoln will take this one. Why? FUCKING BECAUSE.


Best Animated Feature

Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph


What deserves to win: The best movie here is hands down Wreck-It Ralph.

What will win: With a few disappointments in the bunch, like Brave and Frankenweenie, I would really love to see ParaNorman step up and steal this one, but I don't think that it has the gusto to do so. I think this one is, sadly, going to Brave. Anything is better than Frankenweenie taking the cake. Fuck that movie. And fuck Tim Burton for that matter. And while I'm at it, fuck Oprah. Yea, I said it.

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You can probably tell that I got tired of typing somewhere towards the end there, because my paragraphs became just one sentence. Sorry about that. And sorry I said fuck so many times (but I'm not sorry to you, Tim Burton. Fuck you.) And there you have it, my 85th Academy Awards Predictions (for all of the categories I actually care about.) I hope you enjoyed listening to me rant for a little bit, and I hope you all tune in to see that I am horribly wrong about every single category. Wouldn't you just love that? Yea, me too. See you at the aftermath...peace. But not literally...

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